Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.