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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.