Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”